Unraveling the Narrative Supporting a Green Energy Transition

by Planning Engineer (Russ Schussler) | Judith Curry.com

The purpose of this article is to summarize and debunk many of the issues in the narrative surrounding  the proposed green energy transition as applies to the electric grid.  The issues are so numerous that this piece is at once both too long and too short. A full unraveling deserves a book or series of books. This posting however challenges the narrative through summary comments with links to previous posts and articles which can be read for a more detailed explanation or for greater depth.

The Narrative

Efforts to hasten a “green transition” find support in a powerful and compelling narrative. The following statements are widely believed, embraced and supported by various “experts”, a large part of the public and far too many policy makers:

1. Renewable Energy can meet the electric demand of the United States and World
2. Renewable Energy is economic
3. Renewable Energy sources can provide reliable electric service to consumers and support the grid
4. Renewable energy sources are inexhaustible and widely available
5. Clean Energy resources don’t produce carbon and are environmentally neutral
6. Renewable Energy Costs are decreasing over time
7. It will become easier to add renewables as we become more familiar with the technologies
8. The intermittency problems associated with wind and solar can be addressed through batteries.
9. Inverter based generation from wind, solar and batteries can be made to perform like conventional rotating generator technology
10. Battery improvements will enable the green transition
11. We are at a tipping point for renewables
12. Wind, Solar, and Battery technologies collectively contribute to a cleaner environment, economic growth, energy security, and a sustainable future
13. The world is facing severe consequences from increased CO2 emissions.
14. There will be an inevitable and necessary transition to clean economic renewables
15. Green Energy will allow independence from world energy markets
16. The clean grid will facilitate clean buses, trucks, tanks, planes
17. The third world will bypass fossil fuels and promote global equity
18. Replacing fossil fuels with green energy will have huge health benefits
19. It’s all about Urgency and Action

This narrative is compelling to many consumers and major policy makers. Unqualified acceptance of this powerful narrative makes it clear we should all be behind the movement to increase wind and solar generation along with other efforts to expand renewable resources.  Most all of the above statements making up the narrative are “somewhat” true. Unfortunately, the collective narrative as frequently adopted is at odds with the economics and physical realities of providing electric power and supporting civilization.

How did this narrative become so widely accepted despite dismal real-world results?  A previous posting discussed, “How the Green Energy Narrative Confuses Things” by using misleading language and distraction (#44). Additionally,  tribal loyalties enable distortions and suppress more realistic assessments (#18, #10,#22, #42, &#39). While others should chime in on the social psychology supporting this movement, astute observers can’t miss the power of fear-based narratives, groupthink, demonization of dissenters and misplaced altruism (#39, #18,& #10).  Incentives and their impact on key actors play a major role (#38 & #29). The media overblowing trivialities and focusing on continually emerging “good news” helps cement undeserved optimism.   The great many failures are conveniently forgotten. Finally, it should be noted that the electric grid has been very robust. In the short run you can make a lot of “bad decisions” before negative consequences emerge to challenge the narrative. At that point it may be too late. Read Full Article >